In a recent interview, David Binder Research, a well-respected research organization, shared key insights from their latest poll ahead of the San Francisco mayoral election scheduled for November. Daniel Lurie, the founder of a nonprofit organization and an heir to Levi Strauss & Co., appears to be maintaining a solid advantage in second-choice preferences, positioning him strongly for a possible win.
San Francisco employs ranked-choice voting, which allows voters to rank up to ten candidates according to their preferences. If no candidate obtains more than 50% of the votes in the first round, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed based on voters’ second choices. This process continues until one candidate reaches a majority.
The survey conducted by David Binder took place between September 28 and October 1, gathering responses from 600 potential voters via emails, texts, and phone calls in both English and Cantonese, with a margin of error of ±4.4%. The results showed that in the first round, 23% of voters preferred the current Mayor London Breed, while 22% were in favor of Lurie. Former Mayor Mark Farrell’s first-choice support decreased from 24% in early September to 19%. Current Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin received 16%, and District 11 Supervisor Ahsha Safai garnered 6%.
When it comes to second-choice preferences, Lurie holds a substantial long-term lead with 22%. Farrell follows with 14%, Safai with 13%, Breed with 12%, and Peskin with 8%. The poll suggests that after multiple rounds of counting, Lurie could potentially win with 53% of the votes.
Lurie’s support has significantly increased compared to earlier polls from a few months ago. A mid-July survey using a similar methodology indicated he had only 15% of first-choice votes. The latest results reflect a notable rise, suggesting that Lurie’s standing as a first-choice candidate has improved dramatically.
Public perception also favors Lurie, as the poll found that he has a more positive image than any other candidate, with 53% of respondents viewing him favorably. Conversely, only 27% expressed negative views, giving him a net favorability rating of +26%. This notably contrasts with Farrell’s +2 rating, Safai’s -1, and both Peskin’s and Breed’s ratings at -17.
However, many voters voiced their dissatisfaction with Mayor Breed’s performance, as her approval rating stands at 39% while disapproval has reached 56%, with only 12% of respondents strongly supporting her.
As reported by the SF Examiner, polling in San Francisco poses unique challenges, particularly due to its intricate ranked-choice voting system and diverse populace. Some respondents cautioned against over-analyzing the details of polls, emphasizing that they reflect only a moment in time. David Metz, a pollster from FM3 Research, reinforced that polls should not be seen as definitive forecasts of future outcomes.
