Yahya Sinwar, the leader of the Palestinian militant group Hamas and the mastermind behind the October 7 assault on Israel, was killed by Israeli forces on October 17 in Rafah. His death has created a power vacuum within Hamas, and attention is now focused on potential successors, as their leadership choices could significantly influence the course of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The New York Post has identified five possible candidates to replace him.
**Mohammed Sinwar**
At 49 years old, Mohammed Sinwar, Yahya’s younger brother, serves as one of Hamas’s top military commanders. Reports suggest that the two brothers have a close relationship and collaborated on the planning of last year’s attack on Israel. Although Mohammed is known for his low profile and rarely makes public appearances or gives interviews, he has managed to evade assassination attempts over the years, making him a dark horse for leadership within the organization.
Jonathan Schanzer, the Vice President of Research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a Hamas expert, points out that while Mohammed may lack his brother’s charisma and vision, his name carries significant weight and earns him respect, particularly in the Arab world where family ties are closely linked to leadership and wealth. Experts also speculate that in the wake of Yahya’s death, Hamas might take revenge by targeting any remaining Israeli hostages, particularly if Mohammed ascends to leadership, given the notorious reputation of the Sinwar siblings for being ruthless.
**Khalil al-Hayya**
Khalil al-Hayya, Hamas’s chief negotiator, has recently been on the front lines of ceasefire negotiations in Cairo and Doha, making him a prominent contender to succeed Yahya Sinwar. Serving as Yahya’s close aide, some experts believe that if Khalil were to take over, Hamas might shift its approach towards diplomacy. This spring, he indicated that if Israel were to agree to establish a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank, Hamas might consider disarming. However, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu firmly opposed this proposition.
**Khaled Meshal**
Khaled Meshal, the former political bureau leader of Hamas, served from 2004 to 2017 and is viewed as a strong candidate to regain power. Now at 68, Meshal is currently residing in Qatar and remains a senior official within Hamas despite being designated a terrorist by the United States. Following the assassination of former leader Ismail Haniyeh in August, Meshal was initially poised to seize the leadership, but he lost out to Yahya Sinwar amid internal power struggles. After Sinwar took charge, Meshal called for escalated violent actions, urging Palestinians in the West Bank to carry out suicide attacks against Israelis. Schanzer believes that if the White House leverages Meshal’s presence in Qatar, it could lead to pressure for his extradition and demands for the release of hostages, potentially bringing a swift end to the Gaza conflict.
**Hussam Badran**
At 58 years old, Hussam Badran is one of Hamas’s most recognizable spokespeople and has previously led military operations. Although his chances of becoming the next leader may be slim, his prominent role in the organization makes him one of the few candidates still in contention.
**Mohammad Shabana**
Mohammad Shabana has been in command of the southern forces in Rafah since 2014 and is one of the few surviving senior military leaders. He has played a significant role in planning the extensive tunnel network in Rafah, contributing to the intensification of the conflict in the area.