According to the China News Service on October 25, the Central Meteorological Administration has released a mid-term weather forecast indicating that the next ten days will witness strong wind and rain in the southern and eastern coastal regions, while much of the area north of the Yangtze River will experience above-average temperatures.
In the past ten days, from October 15 to 24, regions such as the northern and eastern parts of the Huang-Huai area, the Jianghuai, Jiangnan, and parts of Southwest China recorded rainfall totals of 40 to 70 millimeters, with some areas exceeding 100 millimeters. These regions saw precipitation levels that were 1 to 2 times higher than the average for this time of year. Additionally, on the 24th, Typhoon “Tammei” caused heavy rainfall in the eastern and northern parts of Taiwan, with some areas experiencing torrential downpours.
During the same period, most of the Northwestern region, eastern parts of Southwest China, as well as areas in Jiangnan and South China recorded average temperatures that were 1 to 3 degrees Celsius above the norm. In contrast, temperatures in other parts of the country were close to seasonal averages.
Looking ahead to the next ten days, from October 25 to November 3, the central and eastern parts of Jianghuai, eastern Jiangnan, and southern South China—including Taiwan and areas in Northwestern Yunnan and Northern Sichuan—are expected to see rainfall amounts ranging from 30 to 80 millimeters. Regions such as eastern Zhejiang, northeastern Fujian, eastern Taiwan, central and eastern Hainan, and the Sansha Islands could see between 100 to 250 millimeters of rain, with isolated areas exceeding 400 millimeters. Conversely, regions in northwestern Xinjiang, southern Gansu, southern Shanxi, central Inner Mongolia, and northeastern parts of Northeast China are forecasted to receive 10 to 20 millimeters of precipitation, with some areas exceeding 25 millimeters. Generally, rainfall in these areas is expected to be higher than the seasonal average, while the rest of the country is predicted to experience below-average precipitation.
Over the next ten days, most regions of the country will see above-average temperatures or temperatures close to seasonal levels, except for South China, where average temperatures are expected to be lower than usual. Eastern Northwest China, western North China, the northeastern region, and the Tibetan Plateau will experience temperatures that are 2 to 3 degrees Celsius above average.
Key weather developments include:
From the 25th to the 28th, a weak cold front will influence the central and eastern Northwestern region, North China, Inner Mongolia, and parts of Northeast China, leading to a temperature drop of 3 to 6 degrees Celsius in some areas, and possibly exceeding 8 degrees in isolated areas. Snow or sleet is anticipated on the eastern side of Tibet, southern and eastern Qinghai, the western Sichuan Plateau, and central Inner Mongolia, with localized heavy snowfall.
From the 25th to the 29th, as Typhoon “Tammei” continues to have an impact, strong rainfall is expected for the central eastern regions of Jianghuai, the eastern coast of Jiangnan, southern South China, and Taiwan. Heavy to torrential rain is likely in areas such as eastern Zhejiang, northeastern Fujian, eastern Taiwan, central and eastern Hainan, and Sansha, with localized extreme precipitation.
From the 28th to the 30th, small to moderate snow or sleet is expected in northern Xinjiang, central and northeastern Inner Mongolia, and northern regions of the western Sichuan Plateau, with heavy snow in localized areas.
From November 1 to 3, a new cold front will influence the central eastern parts of Northwest China, North China, Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, and the Huang-Huai region, causing temperature drops of 4 to 6 degrees Celsius, with local drops exceeding 8 degrees Celsius.
Long-term weather outlook for the next 11 to 14 days (November 4-7) indicates that southern Jiangnan, southern and western South China, southern Northeast China along with eastern Tibet, southern Sichuan, and southern Gansu will see cumulative rainfall of 10 to 25 millimeters, while areas like Hainan and Guangxi may experience localized rainfall exceeding 50 millimeters. Average temperatures in northern Xinjiang, eastern Inner Mongolia, northern Northeast China, and the Tibetan Plateau are expected to be 1 to 3 degrees Celsius above average, while southern Northeast China, southern and eastern Jiangnan, and western South China may see temperatures 1 to 2 degrees Celsius lower than average, with the rest of the country remaining close to seasonal norms.
High-impact weather phenomena to keep an eye on include:
1. Typhoon Activity: From the 25th to the 29th, strong wind and rain events are anticipated in the Bashi Channel, eastern Taiwan waters, the Taiwan Strait, much of the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and along the eastern coast of Jiangnan and South China due to Typhoon “Tammei.” It’s important to note that Typhoon “Connie,” which has formed as the 21st typhoon of the year, is expected to have minimal impact on coastal areas of China.
2. Haze in Central and Southern North China: On the 25th and 26th, the atmospheric diffusion conditions in central and southern North China will be poor, leading to light to moderate haze. Additionally, regions such as southeastern Beijing, Tianjin, southern Hebei, and northwestern Shandong may experience heavy fog from the night of the 25th into the morning of the 26th.