In a recent conversation with the Chinese media outlet “Dilang Wave,” esteemed international relations expert John Mearsheimer from the University of Chicago offered his perspective on the current situation between Russia and Ukraine. Mearsheimer believes that Ukraine may struggle to withstand the ongoing conflict until 2025, predicting that the war will likely come to a close between late this year and early next year, evolving into what he refers to as a “frozen conflict.” He characterized Ukraine as a “dysfunctional remnant state” that will have lost considerable territory.
Mearsheimer highlighted that resolving this crisis could be quite simple if approached with sincerity: first, ensuring that Ukraine does not join NATO, and second, maintaining Ukraine’s neutrality. However, he pointed out that the United States currently seems more focused on pushing for Ukraine’s NATO membership rather than supporting its neutrality.
During the interview, he expressed skepticism about the likelihood of NATO deploying ground or air forces to directly confront Russian troops, suggesting that the U.S. is unlikely to escalate the conflict into a major confrontation with Russia.
Once the “frozen conflict” phase sets in, Mearsheimer expects Ukraine and the West to continue creating challenges for Russia, particularly in the regions of Ukraine under Russian occupation. Conversely, he noted that Russia will aim to undermine the operational capabilities of Ukraine’s remaining government while attempting to create divisions within Europe, including among NATO and EU member states.
He warned that while fighting may seem to diminish on the surface, this “frozen conflict” stage would not lead to true peace, but rather to ongoing, unresolved tensions.
Mearsheimer also addressed the broader implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, noting that it has effectively driven Russia closer to China. Both nations now share common interests in countering U.S. influence worldwide. He remarked that from China’s viewpoint, the war represents a significant opportunity, as Russia will continue to seek support from China, aligning with China’s strategic goals.
Looking ahead, Mearsheimer predicted that Russia would do everything within its power to assist China in overcoming challenges posed by the U.S., underscoring that Russia’s ambitions extend beyond Ukraine and aim at countering U.S. power on a global scale. As long as the U.S. remains a competitor to both China and Russia, their alliance is likely to strengthen.
