On October 9, the German Federal Statistical Office released preliminary data showing that Germany’s exports experienced a surprising month-on-month increase of 1.3% in August 2024, reaching €131.9 billion. This caught economists off guard, as they had been predicting a decline of 1.0%.

The data also revealed a significant drop in imports, which fell by 3.4% to €109.4 billion, leading to a trade surplus of €22.5 billion.

When we break it down further, exports to EU countries totaled €72.7 billion, marking a 0.8% rise compared to the previous month. Conversely, imports from these nations decreased by 3.7% to €57.4 billion. Looking beyond the EU, exports to non-EU countries grew by 1.9% to €59.2 billion, while imports from those regions saw a decline of 3.2% to €52 billion.

One notable highlight was Germany’s exports to the United States, which ascended by 5.5% month-on-month to €13.5 billion. Exports to China also increased, rising by 1.9% to €7.4 billion, although imports from China dipped by 1.4% to €13.2 billion during the same timeframe.

The German Chamber of Commerce has expressed a cautious optimism about these export figures but cautioned against complacency. Volk Treil, the head of foreign trade at the Chamber, stressed that the export sector is still under considerable strain, pointing to high energy costs, taxes, and labor expenses as challenges that threaten the competitiveness of German industries.

In a broader context, German media highlighted that industrial output in August also showed positive growth, increasing by 2.9% month-on-month. However, concerns about a potential recession still loom over the German economy. As a result, the German government has adjusted its economic growth forecast for 2024, revising it from an expected increase of 0.3% to a decline of 0.2%.