In a recent poll that has significant implications for the upcoming presidential election, Arab Americans in Michigan appear to be in a virtual deadlock between presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Robert Tait from Washington reported on October 22, 2024, that the survey, conducted by the Arab News Research and Studies Unit and YouGov, revealed a slight preference for Trump, with 43% of respondents supporting him compared to 41% for Harris. Additionally, 4% expressed support for the Green Party’s Jill Stein.
This polling data aligns closely with an earlier survey by the Arab American Institute, which suggests that Harris’s backing in Michigan, a crucial battleground state with a substantial Arab American population, has diminished due to the Biden administration’s support for Israel during its ongoing conflict with Hamas in Gaza.
Interestingly, the poll indicates that Trump is seen as the more viable candidate for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, leading Harris by 39% to 33%. Moreover, when asked who would be “better for the Middle East in general,” both candidates were tied at 38%.
The support for Trump stands out, especially considering that many respondents—46% compared to 23%—believe that anti-Arab racism and hate crimes are more likely to rise under a Trump presidency than under Harris’s. This is particularly notable given that Trump’s administration was marked by a very pro-Israel stance, including the historic move of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
Despite this, 69% of respondents view Trump as more supportive of Israel’s interests, while 60% feel the same about Harris. The vice president, whose husband is Jewish, has carefully navigated her stance to regain the trust of Arab voters. While asserting Israel’s right to defend itself, Harris has also expressed concern over the escalating humanitarian situation in Gaza and highlighted her belief that the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar could create an opportunity to end the conflict.
In a bid to appeal to Arab voters directly, Trump recently stated on his Truth Social platform that a Harris presidency would lead to decades of turmoil in the Middle East, possibly culminating in a third world war.
Earlier surveys showed Harris with 41% support, slightly trailing Trump’s 42%, with only 12% going to third-party candidates. Despite Harris making some gains from Biden’s earlier support, she remains far behind Biden’s 59% share of the Arab vote in the 2020 election. Currently, with the polls showing both candidates nearly tied in Michigan, the implications for the presidential race are crucial, especially given Trump’s narrow win in the state in 2016 compared to Biden’s victory four years later.
